Water FractalTier 1
at 10/12 TGCShuffle Regional
decks
5
(7.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
15-13-2
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.9%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1301
· median 1404
· range 1062–1478
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1214
Q3 1406
1730
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.3% | +3.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +0.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.1% | -6.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.3% | +5.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
